Fresh pressure is mounting on Nigerian consumers as petrol prices inch closer to N1,000 per litre following renewed volatility in the global oil market linked to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has increased its gantry price for Premium Motor Spirit from N774 to N874 per litre, a development that marketers say could translate to pump prices ranging from N980 to over N1,000 nationwide, depending on distribution and logistics costs.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, confirmed the likely retail price range in a telephone interview on Monday.
“Following the increase by Dangote, the pump price will likely range between N980 and over N1,000 per litre, depending on location and logistics. This is largely the effect of the recent hike in global crude oil prices,” he said.
A senior official at the refinery attributed the upward review to changes in global crude fundamentals and rising replacement costs. According to the official, the adjustment became necessary after crude prices climbed above $80 per barrel amid intensifying conflict in the Middle East.
The refinery had temporarily suspended petrol loading operations from midnight on March 2, 2026, as market players reassessed pricing benchmarks. While diesel supply continued, several depot owners reportedly halted petrol sales to avoid losses tied to fluctuating crude prices.
Oil markets reacted sharply to the geopolitical escalation, with Brent crude jumping close to nine percent to $79.28 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate rising to $72.16 following military exchanges involving the U.S., Israel and Iran.
The crisis has raised fresh concerns about possible disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint responsible for about one-fifth of global oil flows. Shipping slowdowns, higher insurance premiums and security risks have compounded fears of tighter supply.
Energy analysts warn that if crude prices rise beyond $90 per barrel, domestic pump prices in Nigeria could climb further despite the country’s expanding refining capacity. JPMorgan Chase has projected that Brent crude could spike to as high as $120 per barrel in the event of sustained disruption in the Gulf.
The development comes as the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, advances broader industrial investments spanning electricity generation, steel production and port infrastructure. Dangote has maintained that refining is part of a larger strategy to industrialise Africa and enhance energy security.
With a refining capacity of about 650,000 barrels per day and expansion plans underway, the facility is expected to play a central role in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel. However, the latest price adjustment highlights the continued vulnerability of domestic fuel costs to global crude market swings.
For millions of Nigerians already grappling with inflation and rising living expenses, a potential N1,000 per litre petrol price could further strain household budgets and escalate transportation and food costs across the country.